Which Studio Will Be First to $1 Billion This Year?
May 15, 2014 - box officeby Ray Subers
Thanks to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Disney is now a highest-grossing studio in 2014.
May 13, 2014
Over a weekend, Sony became a third studio to strech $500 million during a domestic box bureau in 2014. The other dual are Disneythe stream personality with $541 millionand Warner Bros.
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Before a finish of a Summer, a few of a 6 vast studios will strech $1 billion. The doubt is, that one will get there first?
Dating behind to 2007, during slightest one studio reached $1 billion by mid-July. For a past dual years, it was Disney; for a 5 years before to that, it was Paramount.
Of course, removing there initial doesn’t pledge a initial place finish for a full year. Over a past decade, a initial to $1 billion and a year-end personality have usually lined adult 3 times: Paramount in 2011, Paramount in 2007, and Sony in 2004.
For any of a 6 vital studios, we’ve summarized year-to-date box bureau (in forward order), looked forward during their arriving releases, and reserved contingency of them reaching $1 billion first.
Year-to-Date: $541 million
Biggest Hits: Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($245 million), Frozen ($137.4 million).
Upcoming Releases: Million Dollar Arm (May 16), Maleficent (May 30), Planes: Fire and Rescue (July 18), Guardians of a Galaxy (Aug. 1)
Analysis: So distant this year, Disney is a highest-grossing studio with $541 million. That’s interjection in vast partial to Captain America, that accounts for over 45 percent of that revenue.
Disney’s Summer report is lighter than usual, though. Million Dollar Arm will do medium businessmaybe $50 million or so. Maleficent is a form of big-budget anticipation that can broach outrageous numbers, nonetheless a selling hasn’t unequivocally connected. A sum on standard with Snow White and a Huntsman ($155.3 million) is substantially a best-case scenario. In July, Planes: Fire and Rescue could take advantage of a default of family transport and acquire tighten to $100 million.
If all of that works out, it would put Disney around $850 million yet Guardians of a Galaxy, that opens on Aug 1. That should do good adequate to pull a studio over a $1 billion symbol by a finish of August. Odds: 15%
Year-to-Date: $524 million
Biggest Hits: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($145.2 million), American Hustle ($82.6 million), The Monuments Men ($78 million), Heaven is for Real ($75.7 million).
Upcoming Releases: 22 Jump Street (June 13), Think Like a Man Too (June 20), Deliver Us From Evil (July 25), Sex Tape (July 25)
Analysis: Sony has had a good year so far, nonetheless that’s due mostly to carrying eight national releases (more than any other studio). Their tip title, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, is staid to be a lowest-grossing Spider-Man yet, nonetheless it is going to acquire during slightest another $60 million before a finish of a run. Faith-based strike Heaven is for Real could also supplement another $30 million or so.
Looking ahead, comedy sequels 22 Jump Street and Think Like a Man Too should acquire during slightest $200 million (their predecessors supplement adult to $230 million). With a really noted trailer, Deliver Us From Evil could warn in early July. Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel are an appealing pair, nonetheless Sex Tape is a vast doubt symbol right now. If one or some-more of these titles overperforms, Sony should be during $1 billion by a finish of Summer. Odds: 10%
Year-to-Date: $516 million
Biggest Hits: The LEGO Movie ($253.7 million), 300: Rise of An Empire ($106.2 million).
Upcoming Releases: Godzilla (May 16), Blended (May 23), Edge of Tomorrow (June 6), Jersey Boys (June 20), Tammy (July 2), Jupiter Ascending (July 18)
Analysis: 2014 has been a year of The LEGO Movie for Warner Bros.the charcterised strike accounts for scarcely half of a gain so far. 300: Rise of an Empire also did excellent business, nonetheless it’s jacket adult with around half as many as a predecessor. WB also has dual vital flops in Transcendence and Winter’s Tale.
Their Summer is packaged with new releasesbetween now and a finish of July, they’ve got 6 titles entrance out. Godzilla is a safest bet, and all signs indicate to it delivering around $200 million. The rest of a lineup is worse to predict.
Blended might be one of those singular Adam Sandler cinema to tumble brief of $100 million; still, it should during slightest come tighten to Jack Jill ($74.2 million). The final strange Tom Cruise film to acquire over $100 million was 2005’s War of a Worlds, and Edge of Tomorrow substantially won’t sire that trend. It’s tough to suppose Jersey Boys violation out, and Tammy lacks a clever offshoot of new Melissa McCarthy‘s 2013 hits Identity Thief and The Heat. Jupiter Ascending is a furious card, nonetheless as of now it looks some-more like John Carter ($73.1 million) than The Matrix ($171.5 million).
Still, if all of those perform in line with medium expectations, Warner Bros. should be flitting $1 billion by a finish of July. Odds: 25%
Year-to-Date: $438 million
Biggest Hits: Ride Along ($134.2 million), Lone Survivor ($124.9 million), Non-Stop ($91.1 million)
Upcoming Releases: A Million Ways to Die in a West (May 30th), The Purge: Anarchy (July 18), Get On Up (August 1)
Analysis: Universal has had a really good year during a domestic box office. Including new strike Neighbors, a studio has had 4 original, modestly-budgeted cinema open in initial place. By a finish of May, Universal should be nearby $550 million.
Unfortunately, a residue of their Summer is weak; Universal was ostensible to have Fast Furious 7 in July, yet that had to be changed to subsequent Apr after star Paul Walker‘s astonishing passing. A Million Ways to Die in a West could be a hit, yet it won’t come tighten to Ted levels. The Purge: Anarchy might breeze adult on standard with a initial Purge ($64.5 million), nonetheless that’s distant from a guarantee. The studio has a handful of cinema opening in AugustGet on Up looks quite strongthough it’s doubtful it gets anywhere nearby $1 billion before a finish of September. Odds: 2%
Year-to-Date: $401 million
Biggest Hits: Rio 2 ($113.1 million), Mr. Peabody Sherman ($108.9 million), The Other Woman ($62.1 million), Son of God ($59.7 million)
Upcoming Releases: X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), The Fault in a Stars (June 6), How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), Dawn of a Planet of a Apes (July 11)
Analysis: 20th Century Fox has had a excellent year so far: Rio 2 and Mr. Peabody Sherman both wound adult with over $100 million, while The Other Woman is surpassing many expectations.
More importantly, a studio has a strongest Summer 2014 lineup. With X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Fault in a Stars and How to Train Your Dragon 2, they could browbeat each weekend between Memorial Day and a finish of June. By early July, those 3 titles should supplement adult to during slightest $500 millionaround $450 million separate between X-Men and Dragon, and $50 million for Faultwhich would put Fox tighten to $1 billion. Add in Dawn of a Planet of a Apes, and Fox should have no problem reaching that symbol as early as mid-July. Odds: 45%
Year-to-Date: $321 million
Biggest Hits: Noah ($99.9 million), The Wolf of Wall Street ($75.5 million)
Upcoming Releases: Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27), Hercules (July 25), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8)
Analysis: Paramount has had a delayed year so far. Noah‘s $100 million is a bit next expectations, while Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones underperformed in January.
Paramount doesn’t enter a Summer ravel until late June, nonetheless it goes yet observant that Transformers: Age of Extinction is going to be huge. Their other releases, Hercules and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, are harder to predict. Still, presumption Transformers reaches $300 million and a other dual mix for $250 millionboth confident predictionsParamount will still be brief of $1 billion going in to a Fall. Odds: 3%
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Summer 2014 Forecast
‘Captain America’ Dominates Strong Apr during a Box Office
March Reaches $800 Million, Fall Short of 2012 Record
‘LEGO’ Leads Not-So-Awesome February
‘Lone Survivor’ Leads Best Jan in Four Years
Strong Nov Box Office Falls Just Short of Record
Holiday 2013 Forecast
‘Gravity’ Dominates Disappointing October
‘Insidious’ Leads Average September
‘Despicable’ Drives Jul to Second-Highest Monthly Gross Ever
‘Man of Steel,’ ‘Monsters U’ Lead Record-Setting June
May Kicks Off Summer 2013 With Record Grosses