Which 2014 Movies Could Reach $1 Billion Worldwide?
April 9, 2014 - box officeby Ray Subers
Transformers: Age of Extinction
April 8, 2014
Looking forward during a 2014 schedule, that moviesif anyhave a possibility during reaching a desired $1 billion mark?
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With Frozen recently flitting $1 billion and a Summer film deteriorate right around a corner, now is as good a time as any to dive in to this question.
To date, customarily 16 cinema have reached this turn in their initial runs (Jurassic Park and The Phantom Menace indispensable 3D re-releases). With a fast enlargement of a unfamiliar marketplace and a further of 3D premiums, a possibility of removing to $1 billion is aloft than ever: in a past 3 years alone, 9 opposite cinema have done it there.
Of those nine, customarily one (Frozen) was an strange movie. The rest are sequels, that were all means to grow an existent fanbase (rather than emanate one from scratch). It should be no surprise, then, that a 2014 releases with a best possibility of reaching $1 billion are mostly authorization titles.
Of course, there’s always a possibility that something will surprise, as Frozen recently showed (it wasn’t even enclosed in this same underline final year).
Also value noting: subsequent year has 3 cinema that are radically guaranteed to acquire over $1 billion: Avengers: Age of Ultron, Bond 24 and Star Wars: Episode VII. Other clever contenders embody Fast Furious 7, Minions and The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2.
Here a contingency on some of 2014’s biggest movies, damaged down in to dual categories: “sequels” and “originals.”
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April)
By a finish of a initial weekend in a U.S., a Captain America supplement had already warranted over $300 million worldwide. With clever reviews and good word-of-mouth, it seems like a protected gamble that The Winter Soldier can breeze adult above Thor: The Dark World ($645 million). Still, it would need implausible binds to get to $1 billion, and it’s going to run in to tough foe from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 commencement in mid-April. Odds: 10%
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May)
The Spider-Man impression has always had a clever worldwide presence: all 4 of a cinema so distant have warranted over $750 million. However, even with 3D premiums, 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man was a lowest-grossing one so far, that suggests this array has mislaid some of a luster.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 does have a array of advantages, though. First, it has a improved recover datethe initial weekend of May has historically been a best place to launch a comic book movie, and both The Avengers and Iron Man 3 recently over-performed in this spot. It also ups a ante with a handful of villains, including fan favorite Green Goblin.
Still, The Amazing Spider-Man customarily perceived a so-so response, that creates dual underwhelming Spider-Man cinema in a row. That’s not a good trend, and customarily foreshadows disappearing grosses. As of now, a best-case unfolding for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is substantially around $850 million worldwide. Odds: 20%
X-Men: Days of Future Past (May)
Bringing together a strange expel and a First Class cast, X-Men: Days of Future Past is being positioned as a Avengers of X-Men movies. The strange organisation delivers a clever jar of nostalgia, while a First Class organisation has a significantly aloft form now than they did 3 years ago (in particular, Jennifer Lawrence is now a tellurian superstar). Add in an exciting, high-stakes story involving time travel, and Days of Future Past is guaranteed to be a highest-grossing X-Men film yet.
Unfortunately, a X-Men authorization doesn’t have a biggest lane record during a box office. Its domestic high is $234.4 million (2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand), while a abroad high is $282.3 million (last year’s The Wolverine). If it can grow a assembly like The Avengers or The Dark Knight, it will transparent $1 billion, yet a contingency of that function are low. Odds: 20%.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June)
The initial How to Train Your Dragon warranted only bashful of $500 million worldwide in early 2010. With goodwill from that well-received installment, and with a Summer that’s infrequently lacking charcterised competition, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is going to see significantly aloft numbers. Last Summer’s Despicable Me 2 leveraged a clever code in to a 79 percent increase: if Dragon 2 does a same, it will tumble only brief of $900 million. Odds: 25%
Transformers: Age of Extinction (June)
From day one, a Transformers authorization was a outrageous moneymaker. It reached new heights with a third installment, Transformers: Dark of a Moon, that warranted over $1.12 billion worldwide (currently sixth all-time). While Age of Extinction loses Shia LaBeouf, it adds Mark Wahlberg and dinosaur robots (so, substantially a net gain).
With a controversial peculiarity of a past dual installmentsand a ubiquitous authorization tired that customarily sets in by a fourth entryAge of Extinction will roughly positively take a drop during a domestic box office. It’s ridiculous to consider this is done for U.S. audiences, though, and it should reason comparatively solid overseas. In particular, demeanour for it to put adult record numbers in China: a final one warranted over $165 million there, and Age of Extinction is partially set in a country. Odds: 70%
Dawn of a Planet of a Apes (July)
The initial Apes reboot2011’s Rise of a Planet of a Apesearned $482 million worldwide, and stays well-liked 3 years later. The supplement takes a story in an sparkling new direction, pitting apes opposite humans in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. With a clever mid-July recover date and a further of 3D, it’s positively going to get a large strike over a predecessor.
As with many of these other movies, though, a contingency are intensely low that a supplement can double a predecessor’s grosses. As a result, Apes is a really doubtful $1 billion contender. Odds: 15%
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (November)
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire warranted $865 million worldwide, that was a 25 percent alleviation over a predecessor. If Mockingjay Part 1 gifted a identical boost, it would breeze adult tighten to $1.1 billion.
The contingency of that function again are slim. The initial half of a Mockingjay book is mostly set-up, and diverts significantly from a Hunger Games structure (there aren’t any “games” this time around). Penultimate chapters in a Harry Potter and Twilight franchisesboth of that were also a initial half of a final bookonly gained dual percent on their predecessors. Mockingjay Part 1 will roughly positively do improved than this, yet $1 billion still isn’t a lock. Odds: 40%
The Hobbit: There and Back Again (December)
The initial Hobbit film done it only past $1 billion, while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug petered out around $950 million. The final installment will expected get behind over $1 billion: audiences seemed to suffer Smaug some-more than a predecessor, and array conclusions tend to see increasing attendance. Odds: 55%
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2014 Release Schedule