Summer 2014 Forecast

April 29, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers
How to Train Your Dragon 2 


 April 23, 2014

With Captain America: The Winter Soldier putting adult outrageous numbers, it competence seem like we’re already in a midst of a Summer box bureau season. Formally, though, a deteriorate kicks off on May 2nd with The Amazing Spider-Man 2, and afterwards runs by a finish of August.

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As is tradition here during Box Office Mojo, we’re starting a deteriorate off with a list of predictions for a highest-grossing movies. Titles are ranked formed on their domestic box bureau forecast, nonetheless unfamiliar predictions are enclosed as well.

The Summer will expected be dominated by high-profile sequels like How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers: Age of Extinction, Dawn of a Planet of a Apes, X-Men: Days of Future Past and The Amazing Spider-Man 2. There’s still copiousness of room for strange titles to mangle out, though, and comedies in sole should have a clever display this year.

Overall, though, a stand doesn’t seem as clever as in years past. Ultimately, it would be unequivocally startling if this Summer surfaced final year’s record $4.75 billion haul.

Without serve ado, here are Box Office Mojo‘s predictions for Summer 2014. After reading, greatfully make certain to share your possess predictions on Facebook.

Top 20 Predictions

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13): The initial How to Train Your Dragon warranted $217.6 million in early 2010, and stays one of a many renouned charcterised cinema in new memory (it ranks in a all-time Top 250 on IMDb). In a Summer lacking any critical charcterised competition, it’s a foregone end that How to Train Your Dragon 2 will urge on a predecessor. If it follows a same settlement as Despicable Me 2, it will acquire $320 million during a domestic box office. (Domestic: $325 million, Foreign: $505 million).

2. X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23): The X-Men authorization is entrance off a dual lowest-grossing outings during a domestic box bureau (X-Men: First Class and The Wolverine). In an bid to energise a series, Days of Future Past brings behind many members of a strange cast, and matches Wolverine adult with a First Class organisation (some of whom have seen their star energy arise almost in a past 3 years). Early trailers sole a high-stakes story, while new element has positioned it as a fun, sparkling team-up film same to The Avengers. Adjusted for inflation, a third X-Men film warranted a homogeneous of $285 million; with a further of 3D sheet pricing, that’s a reasonable expectancy for Days of Future Past. (Domestic: $290 million, Foreign: $470 million)

3. Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27): The initial 3 Transformers cinema all warranted over $300 million during a domestic box office, and a final one reached $1.1 billion worldwide. The fourth installment subs out Shia LaBeouf for Mark Wahlberg, nonetheless that competence not be adequate to make adult for a fact that a final dual cinema aren’t hold in high venerate (fool me once etc.). A diminution on standard with a fourth Pirates of a Caribbean would put Age of Extinction during $275 million; a film should mostly make adult for this overseas, where it’s certain to be a outrageous hit. (Domestic: $285 million, Foreign: $750 million)

4. Dawn of a Planet of a Apes (July 11): In 2011, Rise of a Planet of a Apes became a warn late-Summer strike with $176.8 million. The supplement brings behind Andy Serkis as Caesar, and takes a story in an sparkling new instruction (apes vs. humans in a post-apocalyptic wasteland). With goodwill from a initial installment and a clever mid-July recover date, Dawn of a Planet of a Apes should tip a predecessor’s domestic gross. Thanks to a further of 3D, demeanour for large gains abroad as well. (Domestic: $240 million, Foreign: $460 million)

5. Godzilla (May 16): The bad ambience from 1998’s Godzilla film has been cleared divided by clever trailers that uncover off a tellurian impact of large-scale drop while usually providing brief glimpses of a monster. This calls to mind a selling plan for final year’s World War Z, that kept a zombies vaporous for a many part. While Godzilla doesn’t have Brad Pitt, a hulk lizard should make adult for that. Adjusting for inflation, a 1998 film warranted around $230 million, that is a satisfactory aim for this movie. Also, demeanour for outrageous ubiquitous returns. (Domestic: $230 million, Foreign: $440 million)

6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2): Five years after a Sam Raimi/Tobey Maguire Spider-Man authorization ended, Sony rebooted a renouned superhero in 2012’s The Amazing Spider-Man. The film was a lowest-grossing entrance nonetheless during a domestic box bureau ($262 million), yet was still a clever actor worldwide. Less than dual years later, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 has a webcrawler confronting an collection of villains including Electro and a Green Goblin in what’s billed as his “greatest battle” yet. It also earnings Spidey to a primary initial weekend of May, that is where a authorization set opening weekend box bureau annals twice (in 2002 and 2007). Still, as a fifth film in 12 years, it can’t assistance yet feel a bit redundant. With authorization tired in full effect, another diminution in domestic box bureau is likely. (Domestic: $225 million. Foreign: $480 million)

7. Guardians of a Galaxy (August 1): This is a initial strange Marvel Cinematic Universe film given Captain America: The First Avenger in 2011, and is substantially a riskiest of any of a MCU cinema so far. The heterogeneous rope of characters has no informative cache yet, and there’s no transparent tie-in with a rest of a universe. The attention-grabbing initial trailer directly addressed this emanate by spending an lavish volume of time introducing any member, including a gun-toting raccoon and a tellurian male who goes by Star Lord (played by Chris Pratt). There’s a probability that Guardians winds adult being this Summer’s Pacific Rimthe online hype outweighing ubiquitous interestthough we’re betting it winds adult on standard with a strange Thor. (Domestic: $180 million, Foreign: $250 million)

8. Maleficent (May 30): Based on Disney’s charcterised classical Sleeping Beauty, Maleficent is a latest live-action anticipation from a studio that found success with identical cinema Alice in Wonderland and (to a obtuse extent) Oz The Great and Powerful. A improved comparison here competence be 2012 anticipation Snow White and a Huntsman, that non-stop on a same weekend and also focused a selling on an iconic knave (in this case, a Angelina Jolie‘s Maleficent). That film warranted $155.3 million during a domestic box office; with a family-friendly “PG” rating, Maleficent has a good possibility of relating that. (Domestic: $150 million, Foreign: $300 million)

9. Neighbors (May 9): Seth Rogen is entrance off one of his biggest hits nonetheless in This is a End, and that well-received comedy has been highlighted in Neighbors marketing. More importantly, though, Neighbors has a good comedic set-up that’s front-and-center in all of Universal’s promotion (“Family Vs. Frat”). It’s also well-positioned as a initial R-rated comedy in a Summer that’s full of them. Finally, certain early reviews advise a kind of word-of-mouth that can take a comedy strike to a subsequent level. (Domestic: $140 million, Foreign: $65 million)

10. 22 Jump Street (June 13): Like any other kind of sequel, comedy follow-ups are a churned bag: for each Meet a Fockers (+68%), there’s a Sex and a City 2 (-38%). 22 Jump Street will expected breeze adult somewhere in a middle. The initial film is well-liked, and previews have adequate clever gags to advise that this one delivers as well. Unfortunately, it also opens in a more-competitive Summer season, and comes on a heels of 3 strange May comedies that should all do plain business. Ultimately, design 22 Jump Street to breeze adult in a same operation as a original. (Domestic: $135 million, Foreign: $75 million)

11. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (August 8): With a intensity to supplement to already considerable fondle sales, it creates financial clarity to move a Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles behind to a large screen. The initial teaser left something to be desired, though, and a mid-August recover date is wily (with Guardians a week before, can this unequivocally mangle out?). It’s probable that Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles performs on standard with 2009 fondle instrumentation G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra ($150.2 million), yet for now we’re betting reduce on it. (Domestic: $130 million, Foreign: $255 million)

12. A Million Ways to Die in a West (May 30): Writer/director Seth MacFarlane is entrance off entrance underline Ted, that was a worldwide prodigy with scarcely $550 million. It’s irrational to design Million Ways to come anywhere tighten to thatMacFarlane is untested in front of a camera, and Westerns usually have a so-so lane record. Still, a trailer is laugh-out-loud funny, and a Ted code really broadens a appeal. (Domestic: $125 million, Foreign: $170 million)

Continued with #13-20 and other titles

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

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