Grading Mojo’s Holiday Forecast

March 12, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 

 March 11, 2014

Back in November, Box Office Mojo done specific box bureau predictions for a arriving holiday season. Now that a awards deteriorate is over, these titles are finally jacket adult their runs, so it’s time to consider how we did.

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For any title, we will list a domestic forecast, a tangible sum (in many cases an estimate) and a commission disproportion [(Actual-Forecast)/Forecast]. Each prophecy will be reserved a class on a following capricious scale: A (less than 10% difference), B (10-19.9%), C (20-29.9%), D (30-39.9%) and F (over 40%).

As usual, there were some spot-on predictions (Catching Fire, The Wolf of Wall Street), some misses (Anchorman 2, American Hustle) and some disasters (Frozen, Grudge Match).

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Forecast: $400 million
Actual: $424 million (est.)
Difference: +6%
Grade: A

Six months ago, anyone could have told we that The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was going to be a outrageous hit. Few approaching it to do this well, though: Catching Fire is a initial supplement ever to out-gross a prototype that warranted over $350 million during a domestic box office.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Forecast: $230 million
Actual: $258 million (est.)
Difference: +12%
Grade: B+

The initial Hobbit warranted $303 million, nonetheless perceived lukewarm word-of-mouth. As usual, this meant a decrease during a domestic box office, nonetheless it wasn’t utterly as high as anticipated. Chalk this adult to a faithfulness of a Lord of a Rings fanbase, and a seductiveness of finally removing to see a dragon Smaug in action.

Thor: The Dark World

Forecast: $220 million
Actual: $206 million (est.)
Difference: -6%
Grade: A

Thor: The Dark World
got a bit of an Avengers strike (14 percent), nonetheless it wasn’t on standard with Iron Man 3 (31 percent). This isn’t startling given a so-so selling effort, intermediate reviews, and a fact that a initial Thor was already in 3D.


Forecast: $185 million
Actual: $405 million
Difference: +119%
Grade: F

Frozen is going to acquire over $300 million during a domestic box office.” If someone pronounced that final October, we all would have called them crazy, so a fact that this is going to breeze adult over $400 million is astonishing to contend a least.

Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues

Forecast: $165 million
Actual: $128 million (est.)
Difference: -22%
Grade: C+

The strange Anchorman is one of a many quotable cinema ever, and a fanbase is a outspoken one. Unfortunately, that fanbase also isn’t as extended as anticipated: while word-of-mouth wasn’t great, a genuine emanate for Anchorman 2 was that seductiveness wasn’t all that high to start with. Ultimately, it did see somewhat aloft assemblage than a original, nonetheless it was a extrinsic increase.

Saving Mr. Banks

Forecast: $130 million
Actual: $83 million (est.)
Difference: -36%
Grade: D

There were dual improper assumptions done about Saving Mr. Banks: that it would be a go-to choice for families over a holidays, and that it would be an awards contender. It wound adult being a bit too dim for familiesand Frozen was some-more of a powerhouse than expectedand a awards didn’t unequivocally vessel out.

The Wolf of Wall Street

Forecast: $125 million
Actual: $118 million (est.)
Difference: -6%
Grade: A

Prior to release, there was some regard that a three-hour runtime and softly racy calm would keep The Wolf of Wall Street from joining with ubiquitous audiences. The debate surrounding a film done it a must-see, though, and this became a third $115 million film in a quarrel from Martin Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio.

American Hustle

Forecast: $120 million
Actual: $151 million (est.)
Difference: +26%
Grade: C

Coming off The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook, it was transparent that executive David O. Russell was apropos a box bureau draw. Even with a expel done adult of all-stars from those movies, though, it was tough to predict Hustle‘s success: over $150 million for an R-rated duration play is flattering remarkable.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Forecast: $95 million
Actual: $62 million (est.)
Difference: -35%
Grade: D

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
had an A-list comedy star (Ben Stiller) and clever early trailers. Unfortunately, it got squeezed out by tough competition: Hustle and Wolf appealed to adult audiences, while Frozen monopolized families.

Grudge Match

Forecast: $80 million
Actual: $29.8 million
Difference: -63%
Grade: F

In hindsight, this was substantially a misfortune prophecy in a story of Box Office Mojo. Whoops.

Ender’s Game

Forecast: $75 million
Actual: $61.7 million
Difference: -18%
Grade: B-

Considering this prophecy was done after Ender’s Game‘s opening weekend, it unequivocally should have been closer. There was an expectancy that it would reason a bit better; unfortunately, fans of a book rushed out to see it on a initial weekend, and underwhelming word-of-mouth kept some-more doubtful viewers from checking it out in entrance weeks.

Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas

Forecast: $70 million
Actual: $52.5 million
Difference: -25%
Grade: C

The Christmas deteriorate seemed like a ideal fit for inclusive writer/director Tyler Perry‘s renouned Madea character. Either that arrogance was incorrect, or Perry’s code is on a decline: ultimately, Madea Christmas was one of a lowest-grossing Madea cinema yet.

Other Titles

The predict enclosed predictions for cinema we approaching would acquire over $70 million. Lone Survivor and The Best Man Holiday weren’t on a list, nonetheless both wound adult over $70 million. Lone Survivor is on lane for around $126 millionmore than any of a allied titleswhile The Best Man Holiday sealed only over $70 million.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

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Holiday 2013 Forecast
Grading Mojo’s Summer Forecast
Strong Nov Falls Just Short of Record
Summer 2013 Sets New Record with $4.76 Billion
Summer 2013 Forecast

Related Charts
Holiday Grosses
2013 Grosses (2013-only releases)

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