Forecast: ‘Rio 2,’ ‘Captain America’ Could Both Reach $40 Million This Weekend

April 15, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers
Rio 2 

 April 10, 2014

Animated supplement Rio 2 could journey to around $40 million this weekend, that would put it in a tighten competition for initial place opposite Captain America: The Winter Soldier. Meanwhile, Draft Day and Oculus are targeting some-more medium debuts.

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Captain America: The Winter Soldier set an Apr record final weekend with $95 million. Most comic book cinema tumble tough in their second weekends: identical cinema Iron Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World fell 58 percent and 57 percent, respectively. Captain America has improved reviews and stronger word-of-mouth, yet it would still be startling if it forsaken reduction than 50 percent.

Playing during 3,948 locations, Rio 2 could give a Captain a run for a money. The initial Rio non-stop to $39.2 million around a same time in 2011, and eventually sealed with a plain $143.6 million. While it was well-liked enough, a repute doesn’t seem to advise a outrageous strike for a sequel.

Rio 2 shifts a movement from a bustling city of Rio de Janiero to a Amazon jungle. While that seems to pierce a story forward, a jungle environment isn’t as immediately appealing. Advertising has put an importance on a returning voice cast, that includes such different talent as Anne Hathaway, George Lopez and Jamie Foxx. It also adds Kristen Chenoweth, Andy Garcia and cocktail stars Bruno Mars and Janelle Monae, that helps compute it a bit.

Advertisements concentration on a laughs, that is always a and for family fare. To that end, Rio 2 enters a marketplace during a time when March’s family releases are starting to fade: Mr. Peabody Sherman and Muppets Most Wanted total for reduction than $12 million final week. Rio 2 should also advantage from an arriving report that is strangely abandoned of family farethe subsequent vital charcterised recover is a full dual months away.

Regardless of how Rio 2 performs during a domestic box office, a certain to be a large strike internationally. The initial one warranted $341 million, and this one seems good on a approach to relating that series (it has already warranted over $55 million).

Opening during 2,781 theaters, Draft Day outlines Kevin Costner‘s initial sports film given 1999’s For Love of a Game. He’s also starred in dual other ball cinema (Field of Dreams, Bull Durham) and a golf film (Tin Cup).

In Draft Day, Costner plays a Cleveland Browns ubiquitous manager who is tasked with navigating a backroom complexities of a NFL Draft Day (basically, it’s a football chronicle of Moneyball). Summit’s selling debate has had copiousness of football tie-ins: a 30-second mark ran forward of a Super Bowl, and some ads stress a participation of commentators Chris Berman and Jon Gruden and Houston Texans using behind Arian Foster. The goal, of course, is to strech a comparison masculine assembly who has a many seductiveness in a nitty-gritty aspects of a NFL.

Traditionally, sports cinema have a sincerely low roof during a box office: with Brad Pitt and illusory reviews, Moneyball could usually get to $19.5 million in a initial weekend. Draft Day‘s reviews aren’t utterly good (less than 50 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), and a promotion bid hasn’t been utterly as aggressive. Lionsgate is awaiting an opening in a low-teens this weekend.

Opening during 2,648 locations, Oculus is a initial abnormal fear film given January’s Devil’s Due. The film has plain reviews (74 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), and could advantage from a participation of writer Jason Blum (who came on house a film after it premiered during Toronto’s Midnight Madness module final year).

Advertisements underline plain scares, yet it does seem a bit tighten to 2008 fear film Mirrors. Relativity Media is awaiting between $11 and $13 million, that is a reasonable idea for a medium festival pickup.

The Raid 2
expands to 954 theaters after dual weeks in singular release. Last weekend, it averaged $5,036 during 26 locations. In comparison, a initial Raid averaged $5,880 when it was during 46 theaters. This inequality suggests that a supplement isn’t removing a critical boost from a original’s clever reputation. When The Raid: Redemption stretched to 881 theaters, it warranted reduction than $1 million; during best, The Raid 2 competence hardly tip that.

In singular release, salsa comedy Cuban Fury opens during 79 theaters. Meanwhile, Roadside Attractions will recover David Gordon Green‘s well-reviewed play Joe (2014) during 48 locations. Look for this to enhance over a subsequent few weeks.

Forecast (April 11-13)

1. Captain America – $43 million (-55%)
2. Rio 2 – $41 million
3. Oculus – $11.5 million
4. Draft Day – $10.5 million
5. Noah – $8.7 million (-49%)

Bar for Success

At a minimum, Rio 2 needs to keep many of a original’s audience. Anything above $35 million gets a pass. Meanwhile, anything over $10 million is excellent for Draft Day and Oculus.

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