Forecast: ‘Neighbors’ Set to Party Hard Over Mother’s Day Weekend

May 15, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers

 May 8, 2014

Friday AM Update: Neighbors warranted an estimated $2.56 million from Thursday night shows commencement during 8 p.m. That’s a clever outcome for a comedy; in comparison, Ted warranted $2.63 million from midnight shows in Jun 2012. While it’s doubtful that Neighbors comes tighten to Ted‘s $54.4 million debut, it still seems staid for during slightest $35 million this weekend.

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Forecast: It’s Mother’s Day weekend. Do we know what your neighbors are doing?

If they’re fans of R-rated humor, chances are they’re on their approach to see Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy Neighbors. Thanks to a rarely relatable, laugh-out-loud offered bid and clever early reactions, a Universal recover could acquire over $40 million this weekend.

That would expected be adequate to dissapoint The Amazing Spider-Man 2, that is staid for a high dump from a $91.6 million debut. The superhero supplement has perceived intermediate reviews (55 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and churned word-of-mouth (“B+” CinemaScore): on both of those metrics, it trails new comic book cinema like Man of Steel, Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 3. All 3 of those fell by during slightest 57 percent in their second weekends, that is a illusive outcome for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 as well. A weekend sum between $35 and $40 million is a protected bet.

This weekend, Neighbors reaches 3,279 theaters on a heels of an aggressive, highly-effective offered campaign. Advertisements play adult a “Family vs. Frat” storyline, that presents a transparent dispute that seems abundant with comedic potential. There are a ton of clever jokes sparse throughout, all of that seem to upsurge naturally from that set-up. The film also advantages from a likeable expel that should be equally appealing to organisation (Rogen) and women (Efron, Rose Bryne).

Recognizing that they have a leader on their hands, Universal has screened Neighbors early and often. Similar to their 2011 strike Bridesmaids, a studio premiered a film during South by Southwest in Mar before display it off during hundreds of word-of-mouth screenings. The film is also removing a plain vicious reception: as of Thursday afternoon, it had a 79 percent rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

Six strange R-rated comedies have non-stop over $35 million: 21 Jump Street, The Heat, Scary Movie, The Hangover, Ted and Sex and a City. Universal isn’t awaiting Neighbors to go that high, and are instead presaging a some-more medium mid-to-high $20 millions.

However, online sheet seller Fandango reports that a film is offered twice as many modernized tickets as This is a End ($20.7 million), and a many for an R-rated comedy given Ted in 2012. That puts it above The Hangover Part III ($41.7 million) and The Heat ($39.1 million). With good offered and clever modernized sheet sales, Neighbors could positively open above $40 million this weekend.

If Neighbors does tip The Amazing Spider-Man 2, it will be Universal’s fourth strange film to open in initial place in 2014. The other 3 are (in order) Lone Survivor, Ride Along and Non-Stop.

First-time distributor Clarius Entertainment is releasing charcterised film Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return during 2,641 locations this weekend. As a pretension suggests, a film is a supplement of sorts to a 1939 classical The Wizard of Oz; as Oz The Great and Powerful showed final year, a land of Oz continues to have vital box bureau potential. Legends of Oz has also perceived a plain offered push, and theaters are lacking uninformed family entertainment: Rio 2, Bears and Mr. Peabody Sherman warranted reduction than $10 million total this past weekend.

Unfortunately, a film looks transparently cheapmuch some-more so than new eccentric charcterised facilities like Free Birds or The Nut Job. In fact, it calls to mind charcterised flops like Happily N’Ever After ($6.6 million debut) and Hoodwinked Too! Hood vs. Evil ($4.1 million). While a film will have some interest with really immature children, many families will expected select to save their income for arriving releases like Maleficent and How to Train Your Dragon 2.

The large warn this weekend could be comedy Moms’ Night Out, that Sony is releasing during 1,044 locations. While it’s not transparent from a offered material, Moms’ Night Out is targeting a same organisation of Christian moviegoers who have recently incited out in droves for Son of God, God’s Not Dead and Heaven is for Real. The calm here isn’t as faith-affirming, yet it is family-oriented and ties in easily with a Mother’s Day holiday.

According to Fandango, it’s a third-highest sheet seller going in to a weekend. While it would be intolerable if it matched God’s Not Dead ($9.2 million), it’s still probable that Moms’ Night Out opens above $5 million.

Writer/director Jon Favreau‘s Chef gets started during 6 locations this weekend. Favreau is entrance off a run of big-budget movies, yet his roots are in indie transport like Swingers and Made. Chef is removing plain reviews so farover 80 percent on Rotten Tomatoesand should put adult a clever per-theater normal (at slightest $30,000) in New York and Los Angeles this weekend.

Forecast (May 9-11)

1. Neighbors – $41 million
2. Amazing Spider-Man 2 – $37.6 million (-59%)
3. The Other Woman – $8.1 million (-44%)
4. Mom’s Night Out – $6.7 million
5. Legends of Oz – $5.5 million
6. Heaven is for Real – $5.3 million (-38%)

Bar for Success

This is a End non-stop on a Wednesday and warranted $33 million by a initial 5 days; if Neighbors can get to $30 million over a three-day weekend, that’s a large win for Universal. As an charcterised film personification during over 2,600 locations, Legends of Oz needs during slightest $10 million this weekend. At a medium 1,044 theaters, Moms’ Night Out is in good figure over $5 million.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

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