Forecast: Moviegoers to Choose ‘Man’ Over ‘Boys’ This Weekend

June 20, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers

 June 19, 2014

Friday AM Update: Think Like a Man Too warranted an estimated $1.8 million from late Thursday shows commencement during 7 p.m. That’s over 3 times as most as a initial Think Like a Man warranted during midnight, and is also above Ride Along‘s $1.06 million 8 p.m. debut.

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Before presumption this is going to acquire over $40 million, though, it’s value remembering that this Summer’s late Thursday numbers have accounted for a disproportionately high commission of a altogether weekend (just final weekend, 22 Jump Street‘s Thursday series accounted for scarcely 10 percent of a weekend gross, that is really high for a comedy). Still, this sum does advise that Think Like a Man Too should be in line for during slightest $30 million this weekend.

Forecast: Comedy supplement Think Like a Man Too should take initial place during a box bureau this weekend, while Clint Eastwood‘s Jersey Boys could breeze adult outward of a Top 5.

Overall business is going to loiter significantly behind a same weekend final year, when Monsters University and World War Z faced off opposite clever holdover Man of Steel. Those 3 cinema total for $190 million, that is some-more than all cinema in recover will acquire this weekend.

Opening during 2,225 locations, Think Like a Man Too arrives around dual years after a initial Think Like a Man, that was really loosely formed on Steve Harvey’s best-selling book “Think Like a Man, Act Like a Woman.” The battle-of-the-sexes comedy non-stop to a really clever $33.6 million, and wound adult shutting north of $91 million. While it was a non-starter abroad (less than $5 million), a domestic transport alone was adequate to clear a supplement for this modestly-budgeted comedy.

The categorical expel of Think Like a Man earnings for a sequel, that finds a several couples roving to Las Vegas for a bachelor/bachelorette weekend. While Vegas has seemed on shade utterly a bit in new years, it’s still an appealing awaiting to see likeable characters cut lax in impiety city. The pierce to Vegas might also assistance enhance a movie’s assembly a bit, as a initial tour lopsided heavily womanlike (63 percent).

The expel has been out compelling a film aggressively over a past few weeks. Front-and-center is Kevin Hart, who has seen his star arise significantly in a final few years (the movie’s trailers and commercials are also focused some-more around him this time around). Last year, Hart’s stand-up film Let Me Explain warranted $32.2 million, that ranks fourth all-time for a stand-up movie. Buddy patrolman comedy Ride Along afterwards non-stop to a Jan record $41.5 million on a approach to $134.2 million, creation it one of a biggest hits of 2014 so far.

Still, Hart isn’t invincible: he couldn’t save December’s Grudge Match, and February’s About Last Night fell brief of $50 million. About Last Night is utterly notable since it common dual other expel members with Think Like a Man (Michael Ealy, Regina Hall) and had a identical battle-of-the-sexes vibe.

For now, though, it’s value presumption that About Last Night was an exception: it did have a limiting “R” rating, and substantially non-stop a bit too tighten to Ride Along. According to Fandango, Think Like a Man Too is staid to do utterly a bit better. As of Thursday morning, it was outselling Ride Along and a strange Think Like a Man, that suggests a $40 million entrance could be within reach.

If it does breeze adult over $40 million, that will be a second $40-million-opener of 2014 for executive Tim Story (the other being Ride Along). That happened final year for James Wan (The Conjuring, Insidious Chapter 2) and this year for Phil Lord and Chris Miller (The LEGO Movie, 22 Jump Street).

Playing during 2,905 theaters, Jersey Boys is staid to breeze adult in a apart fourth place (at best). Based on a renouned Broadway low-pitched of a same name, a Clint Eastwood-directed film tells a story of a first of a rope The Four Seasons, that is best-known for songs like “December, 1963,” “Sherry,” “Can’t Take My Eyes Off You,” and many more.

The movie’s dual categorical offered pointsClint Eastwood, and a Broadway connectiondon’t have utterly considerable lane annals during a box office. Eastwood’s final 6 cinema in that he does not seem on camera (so incompatible Gran Torino) have all unsuccessful to acquire some-more than $38 million during a domestic box office.

Meanwhile, for each successful Broadway instrumentation (Chicago, Les Miserables) there are a handful of flops (Rock of Ages, Rent, The Producers). All of those flops were renouned on stage, though unsuccessful to bond with moviegoers on release. Without any on-camera star energy and with a sincerely resigned selling effort, it’s expected that Jersey Boys joins a ranks of Broadway disappointments.

One consolation, during least, is that a Jersey Boys is going to have a essentially comparison audience, that doesn’t typically rush out on opening weekend. Even with lukewarm reviews (a bit subsequent 60 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), this should still reason adult good over a subsequent month.

Forecast (June 20-22)

1. Think Like a Man Too – $37.5 million
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2 – $29.2 million (-41%)
3. 22 Jump Street – $26.3 million (-54%)
4. Maleficent – $11.3 million (-39%)
5. Jersey Boys – $11 million
6. Edge of Tomorrow – $10.1 million (-39%)

Bar for Success

Think Like a Man Too doesn’t need to compare a predecessor, though it should be removing tighten ($30-million-plus). Anything over $15 million would be a win for Jersey Boys.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

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Last Weekend’s Report: ‘Jump Street’ Sequel Scores, ‘Dragon’ Disappoints
Last Weekend’s Forecast: ‘Dragon,’ ‘Jump Street’ Set for Sequel Showdown This Weekend
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