Forecast: ‘Divergent’ Leaps Into Theaters — Will It Be a Next YA Hit?

March 22, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers

 March 20, 2014

Thursday Update: Divergent warranted an estimated $4.9 million from late Thursday shows. In comparison, a initial Twilight non-stop to $7 million during midnight in Nov 2008. If Divergent follows an matching pattern, it will breeze adult tighten to $50 million for a three-day weekend.

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Forecast: Young-adult instrumentation Divergent, that is being positioned as a inheritor to Twilight and The Hunger Games, should simply take initial place during a box bureau this weekend. Meanwhile, Muppets Most Wanted also opens, yet with a bit reduction pushing than a predecessor.

Opening during 3,936 theaters, Divergent is a latest in a prolonged line of young-adult adaptations directed during a immature womanlike assembly that incited out in droves for a Hunger Games and Twilight franchises. Unfortunately, other new attempts have been less-than-impressive: in a past 14 months alone, Beautiful Creatures, The Host, The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones and Vampire Academy all bombed.

No doubt about it, Divergent is in a joining above those movies. It’s widely supposed that Veronica Roth’s book serieswhich also includes sequels Insurgent and Allegianthas a outrageous following, presumably on standard with Twilight‘s forward of release. It also helps that it’s being expelled by Lionsgate/Summit, that has a proven lane record with young-adult element (Twilight and Hunger Games).

Their selling debate got a summary out early and often: a initial trailer launched with Catching Fire in November, and a new broadside assault has been tough to avoid. According to Summit, Divergent now has a many Instagram supporters ever for a movie. All of this has resulted in quick modernized sheet sales: a initial day was one of a Top 10 ever, and Fandango is stating that Divergent now accounts for 80 percent of sales for a weekend.

Clearly, Divergent has a poignant fanbase that has been successfully mobilized for a big-screen adaptation. For these young-adult properties to unequivocally mangle out, though, they need to bond with ubiquitous audiences that might be reduction informed with a material. In that respect, Divergent has struggled to equivocate Hunger Games comparisons. Both cinema underline immature adult heroines fighting an peremptory supervision in some kind of post-apocalyptic setting. Unfortunately, there’s an immediacy to Katniss’ onslaught in a locus that’s lacking from Divergent: does Tris Prior’s temperament predicament unequivocally reason most seductiveness to anyone who hasn’t review a book?

Making matters worse, a film is receiving bad reviews: as of Thursday afternoon, it was hovering around 35 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. While that’s not going to deter a fans, it will positively keep some some-more infrequent viewers away.

The initial Twilight non-stop to $69.6 million in Nov 2008. Ahead of release, Lionsgate/Summit is awaiting somewhat reduction ($50-$60 million) for Divergent.

Opening during 3,194 theaters, Muppets Most Wanted reaches theaters two-and-a-half years after Disney’s 2011 Muppets reboot. That film warranted $41.5 million over a prolonged Thanksgiving weekend, yet fell off fast and sealed during $88.6 million. That high dump was surprising, deliberation a film had good reviews (96 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and seemed well-liked by audiences (7.2 on IMDb).

While a supplement keeps a suggested Muppets, it does make a few notable changes. For a tellurian cast, Jason Segel and Amy Adams are out, and Tina Fey, Ricky Gervais and Ty Burrell are in. Also, instead of a nauseating story about reuniting a aged squad to save a theater, Muppets Most Wanted is a dumb hop set in Europe.

Commercials have played adult a laughs, that is a pivotal to joining with family audiences. Still, charcterised cinema have hold a tip mark in 5 of 11 weekends so distant this year, so it’s probable that families are wrung dry right now. Also, a initial movie’s nostalgia cause doesn’t seem to be in outcome here, that means reduction seductiveness among adults. Ultimately, it would be startling if Muppets Most Wanted non-stop above $25 million.

Christian film God’s Not Dead is being expelled national in to 780 locations this weekend. There are examples of medium faith-based cinema violation out: with a identical release, 2008’s Fireproof non-stop to $6.8 million. That’s a exception, though, and improved comparisons like The Ultimate Gift, To Save a Life and The Grace Card all non-stop between $1 and $2 million. A identical predestine is expected for God’s Not Dead.

New singular releases this weekend embody Blood Ties (28 theaters) and Nymphomaniac: Volume I (24 theaters). Blood Ties hasn’t perceived most of a push, and Nymphomaniac has a kind of sexually-charged calm that might be improved matched for home observation (it’s been accessible on VOD for weeks). Therefore, initial box bureau earnings for these dual titles will expected be modest.

Wes Anderson‘s The Grand Budapest Hotel expands to 304 locations this weekend. Last weekend, it warranted $3.4 million from only 66 theaters; this weekend, it should have no problem grossing over $5 million. Meanwhile, Jason Bateman‘s Bad Words reaches 87 locations forward of a national enlargement on Mar 28th.

Forecast (March 21-23):
1. Divergent – $51 million
2. Muppets Most Wanted – $22 million
3. Mr. Peabody – $13.1 million (-40%)
4. 300 – $9 million (-53%)
5. Need for Speed – $8 million (-55%)

Bar for Success
With a wild fanbase and bad reviews, Divergent is a form of film that will expected bake off fast after opening weekend. As a result, it’s going to need a clever startit doesn’t need to compare Twilight, yet it should be opening over $50 million. Meanwhile, Muppets Most Wanted is excellent if it opens over $20 million.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

Related Stories:
Last Weekend’s Report: ‘300’ Sequel Conquers Box Office
Last Weekend’s Forecast: ‘300’ Sequel to ‘Rise’ Up Against ‘Mr. Peabody’ This Weekend
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