Forecast: ‘Captain America’ Takes Aim during Apr Record This Weekend

April 8, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 

 April 3, 2014

Thursday Update: Captain America: The Winter Soldier got off to a clever start on Thursday night. The film warranted $10.2 million, that is a conspicuous alleviation over Thor: The Dark World‘s $7.1 million.

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In comparison, Iron Man 3 took in $15.6 million, while The Avengers banked $18.7 million. For all 3 of these titles, Thursday shows accounted for 8 to 9 percent of a weekend gross; if Captain America follows this pattern, it will breeze adult between $110 million and $120 million for a three-day frame.

Forecast: Riding a call of goodwill from The Avengers, Marvel’s Captain America: The Winter Soldier is staid for a biggest opening nonetheless in 2014.

At 3,938 locations, a ninth film in a Marvel Cinematic Universe will expected tip Fast Five‘s $86.2 million Apr record, and could even make a run during $100 million. That would put a Captain on a superhero A-list alongside Batman, Iron Man, Spider-Man, Superman and a X-Men.

Similar to Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 3, Captain America: The Winter Soldier serves as a supplement to a approach prototype (2011’s Captain America: The First Avenger) as good as 2012’s The Avengers. As a third highest-grossing film ever, The Avengers gave this set of superheros rare exposure, and combined new fans in a process.

The opening of a initial dual follow-ups indicates that a “Avengers bump” is a genuine thing: Iron Man 3 non-stop 36 percent aloft than a predecessor, while Thor: The Dark World was adult 30 percent. If Captain America performs on standard with Thor 2, it will acquire around $85 million this weekend. There are a few reasons to trust that it can do improved than that, though.

More so than Iron Man 3 or Thor: The Dark World, Captain America: The Winter Soldier feels like a approach delay of a events of The Avengers: a film stars 3 Avengers characters (Captain America, Black Widow and Nick Fury) and facilities S.H.I.E.L.D. and a few Helicarriers. Along a same lines, a movie’s complicated D.C. environment helps The Winter Soldier compute itself from The First Avenger, that was set roughly wholly during World War II. That tends to be a good sign: if a supplement looks like a treading identical ground, it’s reduction expected to be a must-see. The film also moves a story brazen by introducing an iconic knave (The Winter Soldier) and a fun new favourite (The Falcon).

Disney’s selling has managed to communicate all of these points while also compelling a dirty movement and nationalistic aptitude (“In Heroes We Trust”). So far, it seems to be profitable off: on Fandango, Captain America: The Winter Soldier is now outselling Thor: The Dark World.

As a bonus, Captain America is receiving clever reviews. As of Thursday afternoon, it’s during 89 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, that creates this one of a best-reviewed Marvel cinema nonetheless (behind Iron Man and The Avengers). While reviews don’t make or mangle a large film like this, they can positively assistance pull it to a subsequent turn (in comparison, Thor 2 perceived a so-so response from critics).

With a clever selling effort, certain reviews, and probably no competition, Captain America: The Winter Soldier will expected open to during slightest $90 million during a domestic box office.

The film got an early start abroad final weekend, earning $75.2 million from 32 territories. Across a Top 10 markets, Captain America non-stop 17 percent reduce than Thor: The Dark World, that suggests it might be tough to compare that movie’s $438 million total. This weekend, Captain America expands in to Russia, Australia and China.

Among singular releases, Frankie Alice opens during 171 locations this weekend. Back in 2010, Halle Berry was nominated for her purpose here; for whatever reason, distributor Freestyle Releasing couldn’t get a film in to theaters during a time, and a rights eventually wound adult with Codeblack Entertainment (a multiplication of Lionsgate). Berry has finished a bit of press for a film lately, nonetheless it would still be startling if this non-stop above $500,000 this weekend.

Meanwhile, CBS Films releases found footage fear film Afflicted in to 41 theaters. While a film is well-reviewed, it’s removing a day-and-date VOD treatment, that typically translates to below-average box bureau returns.

Forecast (April 4-6):
1. Captain America – $98.6 million
2. Noah – $18.9 million (-57%)
3. Divergent – $11.3 million (-56%)
4. Grand Budapest – $7.1 million (-17%)
5. God’s Not Dead – $7 million (-20%)
6. Muppets – $6.9 million (-39%)

Bar for Success
The initial Captain America non-stop on standard with a initial Thor. With improved reviews than Thor: The Dark World, Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s entrance ought to be during slightest equal to that movie’s $85.7 million.

Discuss this story with fellow Box Office Mojo fans on Facebook. On Twitter, follow us during @boxofficemojo, and follow author Ray Subers during @raysubers.

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