Forecast: After Months of Controversy, ‘Noah’ Finally Storms Theaters

April 1, 2014 - box office

by Ray Subers

 March 27, 2014

Thursday Update: Playing during around 3,000 locations, Noah warranted an estimated $1.6 million on Thursday evening. In comparison, Gravity warranted $1.4 million, while 300: Rise of An Empire grossed $3.6 million. This series doesn’t give a transparent denote of how Noah will perform for a weekend, yet many signs continue to indicate toward a entrance north of $30 million.

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Forecast: Following months of controversy, audiences will finally get a possibility to make their possess comment of Noah this weekend. Sabotage and Cesar Chavez also open, yet both should be underneath $10 million.

Playing during around 3,500 theaters, executive Darren Aronofsky‘s Noah brings to life a obvious Old Testament story of Noah’s Ark. Months ago, word began to widespread that a film took critical artistic permit with a story, that is sincerely brief (Chapters 6 to 9 in Genesis) and bizarre (for example, Noah didn’t have his kids until he was 5 hundred years old). This combined an atmosphere of debate around a project, that typically improves box bureau intensity (controversy creates conversation).

While Paramount would like Noah to bond with eremite audiences, we don’t accurately have to be a unchanging churchgoer to be informed with and extraordinary about a story of Noah’s Ark. The offered element for a film has focused mostly on a disaster elements, and also fashioned Russell Crowe‘s Noah as a soldier same to his roles in Gladiator and Robin Hood. While this has broadened a potential, it’s also diluted a message. Is it a faith-based movie? An movement movie? A disaster movie?

Reviews are solid, yet not spectacular, and substantially won’t pierce a needle much. Paramount is awaiting an opening in a $30 to $33 million range. Meanwhile, Fandango is stating that a offered some-more tickets forward of time than 300: Rise of an Empire, that non-stop to $45 million during a commencement of a month.

Even if Noah is a skip in a U.S., it does seem staid for clever earnings abroad (where a personification in 3D in many markets). This past weekend, it got off to considerable starts in South Korea and Mexico, and some-more territories will follow in a subsequent few weeks.

At 2,486 theaters, Sabotage outlines a third vital purpose for Arnold Schwarzenegger given he returned to a large screen. The initial dual didn’t work out so well: The Last Stand inebriated with $12.1 million, while Escape Plan wasn’t many improved ($25.1 million). From those deplorable results, it seems like audiences usually aren’t meddlesome in saying a Governator in butt-kicking mode anymore.

Marketing for Sabotage has highlighted a End of Watch connectionthey’re both created and destined by David Ayerand put a complicated concentration on action. Story-wise, it’s jumped between “drug bust left wrong” and “kidnapped mother and child,” both of that have been finished large times before. With tough foe from Noahand with Captain America on a horizonit would be startling if Sabotage non-stop above $10 million.

While Cesar Chavez is usually opening during 664 locations, it could do surprisingly clever business. The film stars Michael Pena as a polite rights romantic who worked to urge labor conditions for Latino farmworkers in a mid-20th century. Chavez is a vital favourite within a Hispanic community, who make adult scarcely one-third of visit moviegoers in a U.S.

Last year, Hispanics flocked to Instructions Not Included, that non-stop to $7.8 million during usually 348 theaters. That was a comedy, though, and Chavez doesn’t have a same evident appeal. Still, Lionsgate is doing a good pursuit courting Hispanic audiences: Spanish dubbed and subtitled prints will be accessible during all locations. An opening north of $5 million seems likely.

After earning over $15 million in singular release, Wes Anderson‘s The Grand Budapest Hotel expands in to scarcely 1,000 theaters this weekend. It should once again acquire over $6 million (and could be many higher).

Jason Bateman‘s Bad Words expands to over 800 theaters this weekend. The film hasn’t finished too good in singular release, and there doesn’t seem to be many hum surrounding this national expansion. It would be startling if this done over $4 million this weekend.

Finally, God’s Not Dead expands to over 1,100 theaters after a really successful $9.2 million entrance final weekend. On good word-of-mouth, a film should reason well: a weekend north of $6 million is likely.

Forecast (March 28-30)
1. Noah – $36.2 million
2. Divergent – $22.9 million (-58%)
3. Muppets – $10 million (-41%)
4. Sabotage – $7.8 million
5. Peabody – $7.7 million (-35%)
6. Grand Budapest – $7 million
7. God’s Not Dead – $6.7 million
8. Cesar Chavez – $6.5 million

Bar for Success

Noah star Russell Crowe’s Robin Hood non-stop to $36 million behind in 2010. Noah ought to be in a same range: anything over $35 million gets a pass. Meanwhile, anything above $10 million is a win for Sabotage.

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Last Weekend’s Report: ‘Divergent’ Dominates, ‘Muppets’ Misses, ‘God’ Lives
Last Weekend’s Forecast: ‘Divergent’ Leaps Into TheatersWill It Be a Next YA Hit?
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